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An international sensation—and still the talk of the relevant blogosphere—this Wall Street Journal and New York Times business bestseller examines the “power” in numbers. Today more than ever, number crunching affects your life in ways you might not even imagine. Intuition and experience are no longer enough to make the grade. In order to succeed—even survive—in our data-based world, you need to become statistically literate.
Cutting-edge organizations are already crunching increasingly larger databases to find the unseen connections among seemingly unconnected things to predict human behavior with staggeringly accurate results. From Internet sites like Google and Amazon that use filters to keep track of your tastes and your purchasing history, to insurance companies and government agencies that every day make decisions affecting your life, the brave new world of the super crunchers is happening right now. No one who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Ian Ayres’s engrossing and enlightening book.
- Sales Rank: #327777 in Books
- Brand: Ayres, Ian
- Published on: 2008-08-26
- Released on: 2008-08-26
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.24" h x .66" w x 5.18" l, .53 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 320 pages
From Publishers Weekly
Yale Law School professor and econometrician Ayres argues in this lively and enjoyable book that the recent creation of huge data sets allows knowledgeable individuals to make previously impossible predictions. He calls the data set analysts super crunchers and discusses the changes they're making to industries like medical diagnostics, air travel pricing, screenwriting and online dating services. Although Ayres presents both sides of this revolution, explaining how the corporate world tries to manipulate consumer behavior and telling consumers how to fight back, his real mission is to educate readers about the basics of statistics and hypothesis testing, spending most of his time in an edifying and entertaining discussion of the use of regression and randomization trials. He frequently asks whether statistical methods are more accurate than the more intuitive conclusions drawn by experts, and consistently concludes that they are. Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined. (Sept. 4)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Review
"In the past, one could get by on intuition and experience. Times have changed. Today, the name of the game is data. Ian Ayres shows us how and why in this groundbreaking book Super Crunchers. Not only is it fun to read, it just may change the way you think."—Steven D. Levitt, author of Freakonomics
"Data-mining and statistical analysis have suddenly become cool.... Dissecting marketing, politics, and even sports, stuff this complex and important shouldn't be this much fun to read."—Wired
"[Ayres's] thesis is provocative: Complex statistical models could be used to market products more intelligently, craft better movies, and solve health-care problems—if only we could get past our statistics phobia."—Portfolio
"When statistics conflict with expert opinion, bet on statistics....Businesses, consumers, and governments are waking up to the power of analyzing enormous tracts of information."—Discover
"Super Crunchers shows that data-driven decisionmaking is not just revolutionizing baseball and business; it's changing the way that education policy, health care reimbursements, even tax regulations are crafted. Super Crunching is truly reinventing government. Politicians love to tout policy proposals, but they rarely come back and tell you which ones succeeded and which ones failed. Data-driven policy making forces government to ask the bottom line question of 'What works.' That's an approach we can all support."—John Podesta, President of the Center for American Progress
"A lively and yet rigorously careful account of the use of quantitative methods for analysis and decision-making.... Both social scientists and businessmen can profit from this book, while enjoying themselves in the process."—Dr. Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize winning economist, and Professor Emeritus at Stanford University
“Ayres’ point is that human beings put far too much faith in their intuition and would often be better off listening to the numbers.... The best stories in the book are about Ayres and other economists he knows, whether they are studying wine, the Supreme Court or jobless benefits.... Ayres himself is one of the [statistical] detectives. He has done fascinating research.”—The New York Times Book Review
"Ian Ayres [is] a law-and-economics guru."—Chronicle of Higher Education
“Lively and enjoyable.... Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined.... Edifying and entertaining."—Publishers Weekly
"Super Crunchers presents a convincing and disturbing vision of a future in which everyday decision-making is increasingly automated, and the role of human judgment restricted to providing input to formulae."—The Economist
"Insightful and delightful!" —Forbes
From the Hardcover edition.
About the Author
Ian Ayres ,an econometrician and lawyer, is the William K. Townsend Professor at Yale Law School, and a professor at Yale's School of Management. He is a regular commentator on public radio's Marketplace and a columnist for Forbes magazine. He is currently the editor of the Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, and has written eight books and more than a hundred articles.
From the Hardcover edition.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Pervasive Digitization...exciting or scary?
By Brunello
I'm now inclined to be scared after reading this. Data mining, data "mashups", pervasive digital surveillance...that's what this book is about. I'm no Luddite. I love all my electronic goodies and the benefits of digitization. For example, I like Amazon's ability trecommend fairly good product matches for me based on my reading and similarities to other customers. I like scanning technology to speed me through check out lines. But after reading this book and seeing the potential impacts to our privacy and to our lives, I'm feeling more pessimistic about the unfettered direction the technology is taking us. Marketers, like Amazon and the businesses using scanners, are mining our lives for all they are worth. More than you are aware of.
Decision makers like physicians are very soon to be replaceable with artificial intelligence. Good or bad? Good if you are the patient because of better decision making. Bad if you are the physician. You can be replaced by techs in the near future. Movie producers...your go/no go "greenlight" decisions can better be made by a data mining analysis approach. Authors? Better watch out...the publisher may soon make decisions about your books based on their digital rating as potential best sellers. Almost any job requiring expert decision making is subject to increasing data analysis that is better than the experts can deliver. Scary that even creative professions are vulnerable. Customers probably will benefit from the application of the "super crunching" approach, but something may be lost (such as professional decision making jobs?). And this trend seems to be exponential as data storage becomes commoditized and processor speeds increase. Anything that can be stored as data can be "mashed up" and mined for mathematical predictive relationships. Since most of us are unaware of the acceleration of this approach, we really can't see the implications until they are on us. Where goeth free will if everything is digitized, predicted, and manipulated?
This book is not for mathematicians. It is for the lay reader. Marketers and business people who aren't aware of these trends will be excited by their potential for use in their own industries. The writing is clear but unexceptional. But the book is incredibly thought provoking if you haven't been aware of the trends. The author, who is a data miner himself, is enthusiastic about the "New Way to Be Smart" and the potentials for vastly improved decision making that can enhance our lives, but we non-crunchers need to be aware of potential freedoms unwittingly given away.
9 of 11 people found the following review helpful.
Bloated Introduction to Statistics
By E. Kontsevoy
This book is a typical example of a simple concept usually found in "Introduction" chapter on statistics book, and blown into a book of its own.
If you squeeze all the water out of Super Crunchers, it will turn into just that: a good one-page answer to "What Statistics is Good for?" question. I would recommend this book to any 19 year old thinking of taking statistics class in college, although he or she could safely stop after about 40 pages.
There is no substance, no story, no conclusion and no "main point" in it. The book reads as glorified hype of something old and trivial. The author never mentions cases when statistics gives incorrect answers due to incomplete data or unknown confounding variables, yet any statistician will tell you it happens all the time. He tells stories with doctors getting it wrong, but doesn't mention hundreds of flawed statistical studies where "super crunchers" got it wrong, except for one case where "the other guy" appears to be his colleague-opponent, and that part reads like a pathetic gossip intended for a limited audience.
This book reminds me of "Long Tail", a very similar bloated "book" about trivial and obvious matter. Every once in a while a man just wants to write a book about something, wants it real bad, but falls short of picking a good "something". Not every subject is worth a book, Ian. Sometimes a short article or a blog post will do better.
2 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
How to work smarter instead of harder
By Soccerfan
I thought this was one of the best books I've read this past year. I found it to be well written, entertaining and insightful. The author's main point is that people often put way too much emphasis on their intuition and ability to predict outcomes when computer models based on historical data analysis are often much more accurate.
One of the main targets of the book is the health care industry in the U.S. and how doctors especially place too much emphasis on their own analytical skills and not enough emphasis on data. I suspect at least some of the negative reviews here are from people in the health care industry. There are good reasons why health care in the U.S. is the most expensive in the world, yet according the World Health Care organization in terms of quality of health care, it ranks at number 37, between Costa Rica and Slovenia. An industry mindset that lacks a history of taking advantage of number crunching and thinking by the numbers may well be part of the problem.
I am self employed and since reading this book I've been more numbers oriented and have been more careful to track my hours and keep very detailed logs of what activities make the most money. It has worked out well, so for me reading this book was a great investment and well worth the price of the book.
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